CHANGEME
Two lines: what the correlation score means (1 perfect, 0 no relation) and that these forecasts are the agencies', the comparison ours.
Track record
Outside agencies' forecasts against the precipitation that fell
| Winters | Correlation | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CanESM5 | 36 | 0.22 (−0.12 to 0.51) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| CCSM4 | 44 | 0.17 (−0.14 to 0.44) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| CESM1 | 44 | 0.05 (−0.25 to 0.34) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| CFSv2 | 44 | 0.01 (−0.29 to 0.31) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| GEM5.2-NEMO | 36 | 0.19 (−0.15 to 0.48) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| GEOS-S2S-2 | 45 | 0.16 (−0.14 to 0.43) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| NMME average | 36 | 0.30 (−0.03 to 0.57) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| SEAS5 | 45 | 0.14 (−0.16 to 0.42) | Track record here: no clear skill | |
| SPEAR | 34 | 0.32 (−0.02 to 0.60) | Track record here: no clear skill |
Snow forecasts tested on past winters
CHANGEME
Two lines: what 'less error' means (the whole forecast range scored against what fell) and why ours is compared with the typical season but the others with ours.
Our main forecast against the typical season
| Issue day | Winters | Less error | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov | 41 | 0 % (−2 % to +2 %) | |
| 1 Dec | 41 | +7 % (+2 % to +12 %) | |
| 1 Jan | 41 | +17 % (+7 % to +27 %) | |
| 1 Feb | 41 | +42 % (+33 % to +50 %) | |
| 1 Mar | 41 | +61 % (+54 % to +67 %) | |
| 1 Apr | 41 | +86 % (+82 % to +89 %) |
Outside agencies' forecasts, turned into snow by us, against our main forecast
| Forecast | Winters | Less error | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMME average | 36 | +3 % (−1 % to +9 %) | about the same | |
| SEAS5 | 41 | −1 % (−4 % to +2 %) | about the same | |
| CFSv2 | 41 | 0 % (0 % to 0 %) | same as ours | |
| CanESM5 | 36 | +3 % (−3 % to +9 %) | about the same | |
| GEM5.2-NEMO | 36 | −1 % (−4 % to +3 %) | about the same | |
| GEOS-S2S-2 | 41 | 0 % (0 % to 0 %) | same as ours | |
| CCSM4 | 41 | −5 % (−8 % to −2 %) | clearly worse | |
| CESM1 | 41 | −4 % (−7 % to −1 %) | clearly worse | |
| SPEAR | 33 | +3 % (−6 % to +10 %) | about the same |